Caribbean Stud strategy

Caribbean Stud Poker is five-card stud against the dealer. You see your five cards and one of the dealer’s, then you either fold or raise. There are no draws and no second decision. That makes the strategy short, but it still matters. Most of the game’s value comes from raising every hand that deserves it and folding everything that doesn’t. The tricky part is the narrow band of ace-king hands, where the dealer’s up card decides the answer.

How to play

1. Place an Ante. You can also add the optional $1 progressive side bet.
2. You and the dealer each get five cards. One dealer card is turned face up.
3. Look at your hand and the dealer’s up card. Fold (lose the ante) or raise exactly 2× your ante.
4. The dealer reveals the other four cards.
5. The dealer qualifies with ace-king or better.
6. Dealer doesn’t qualify: your ante pays 1 to 1 and your raise pushes.
7. Dealer qualifies and you win: your ante pays 1 to 1 and your raise pays on the paytable.
8. Dealer qualifies and wins: you lose the ante and the raise. A tie pushes both.

Example: you raise $20 on a $10 ante with 9♠ 9♦ K♣ 6♥ 2♠. The dealer turns over A♦ Q♣ 8♠ 5♥ 3♦. That’s ace-queen high, so the dealer doesn’t qualify. Your ante wins $10 and your raise comes back. You never get the pair paid at all, which is a big part of the house edge.

Payouts

Raise paytable

Paid on the raise when you beat a qualifying dealer. The ante always pays 1 to 1.

$1 progressive (common paytable)

The progressive pays on your hand alone, whether or not the dealer qualifies.

Strategy

This simple strategy comes from Wizard of Odds analysis. It gives a house edge of 5.225%, against 5.224% for perfect play. That’s close enough that you’ll never notice the difference.

The three main rules

Ace-king: raise if any of these is true

1. The dealer’s up card is 2 through queen and matches one of your cards. You hold A♠ K♦ 9♣ 6♥ 3♠ and the dealer shows 6♦. Raise.
2. The dealer’s up card is an ace or king and you hold a queen or jack. You hold A♥ K♣ J♦ 7♠ 4♥ and the dealer shows K♠. Raise.
3. The dealer’s card matches none of yours, you hold a queen, and the dealer’s card is lower than your fourth-highest card. You hold A♣ K♥ Q♦ 8♠ 2♣ and the dealer shows 5♥. Your fourth-highest card is the 8, and 5 is lower, so raise.

Otherwise, fold the ace-king. For example, A♦ K♣ Q♥ 5♠ 3♦ against a dealer 8 folds. No card matches, and the 8 is higher than your fourth card, the 5.

Why these rules work

A matching up card means the dealer is less likely to pair it, since you hold one of the cards they need. A queen or jack in your hand helps you win when the dealer qualifies with just ace-king. Some of these hands are near-ties. A♠ K♥ 7♦ 4♣ 2♥ against a dealer 7 is, by exact calculation, a fold by about 0.0008 antes. That’s far too small to matter.

Common mistakes

• Folding a pair. Every pair is a raise. Folding 8♥ 8♦ against a dealer ace gives up about a full ante compared with raising, per the trainer’s exact EV. That’s far more than any ace-king mistake.
• Raising queen-high or worse. When the dealer qualifies, you rarely win, and you’ve put three antes at risk.
• Raising every ace-king. Weak ace-king hands with no matching card and no queen are small but real losses. A♦ K♣ 9♠ 6♥ 3♦ against a dealer 2 loses about 0.09 antes by raising.
• Playing the progressive at a low meter. At a $150,000 meter it gives back only about 67 cents per dollar.
• Expecting the qualifier to help you. It doesn’t. When the dealer misses, your strong hand only earns the ante.

House edge explained

With optimal play, Caribbean Stud’s house edge is about 5.22% of the ante. You raise on a lot of hands, so measured against all money wagered (the element of risk), the edge is about 2.56%, per Wizard of Odds analysis. Casino Coach’s 600,000-hand simulation of the simple strategy measured 5.10% ± 0.29%, consistent with the published figure.

What drives the edge:

• The dealer qualifier. When the dealer misses, your raise just pushes, even with a full house. Your best hands often get paid only on the ante.
• You act first. You commit the raise before you see the dealer’s hand.
• Folding costs the ante. The weakest hands lose it every time.

Best bet: the ante and raise played with the strategy above. Worst bet: the $1 progressive at a normal meter.

What to look for: the raise paytable above is the common one. On the progressive, check the meter. With the common payout table it breaks even at about $263,205, and below that every dollar loses money on average.

Practice in Casino Coach

Casino Coach deals Caribbean Stud with other players at the table, the standard raise paytable and an adjustable progressive meter. In Trainer mode, each raise-or-fold decision is graded against the exact EV of raising, calculated over all 163,185 possible dealer hands. The feedback also shows which simple-strategy rule applies. Near-ties under 0.25% of an ante count as “either is fine”, and you can block wrong plays until you correct them. The Raise or fold drill drills you on the tricky ace-king hands, and the Payout calculator drill tests qualify-or-not and what the raise pays. Analytics tracks your accuracy, EV lost and results against expectation. Chips are free, so practice the ace-king rules until you never hesitate.

Updated October 24, 2026